GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Jan 25, 2025
This is Ian Hoyer with the avalanche forecast for Saturday, January 25th, at 7:00 a.m. sponsored by Spark R&D and Klim. This forecast does not apply to operating ski areas.
6-8” new snow around Bozeman and Big Sky
2-3” around West Yellowstone, Island Park and Cooke City
Most of the new snow fell during the day yesterday, but it is snowing again early this morning. Snow will wrap up this morning without much additional accumulation. Temperatures this morning are in the single digits above and below 0 F. Winds are 5-15 mph out of the north and west with gusts of 20-40 mph.
Today will be mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the single digits and teens F. Winds will remain northerly and light in our northern regions and moderate further south.
High pressure is settling in for the next week, so don’t expect any more new snow for a while.
Yesterday’s storm overperformed expectations in the mountains around Bozeman and Big Sky, with up to 8” of new snow piling up pretty quickly. Thin slabs were reported breaking easily in the new snow in the Bridgers and Hyalite (observation). Wind Slab avalanches are the primary concern today. Avalanches will be the most easily triggered and deepest on wind-loaded slopes. But don’t entirely discount slopes without much wind effect. Yesterday, Alex found surface hoar buried under the new snow on Buck Ridge (observation). Weak layers have also been found under the new snow in Divide Basin (observation) and Beehive Basin (observation), so we suspect they’re fairly widespread. Remarkably thin, soft slabs can avalanche when they’re breaking on these persistent weak layers. Pay close attention to how deep the new snow is and think about the consequences of that new snow avalanching before getting on a steep slope. Watch for shooting cracks and recent avalanches as the clearest signs that the new snow is unstable.
Avalanches could also break under wind drifts that formed earlier in the week. If you’re happy with the stability of the most recent snow, dig down a couple feet to make sure these older wind slabs are bonded too.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE.
There has been less new snow (2-3”) around West Yellowstone, Island Park, and Cooke City, but human triggered avalanches are still a very real possibility today. There is a wide range to the likelihood and size of the potential slides today. There may be pockets where the newest snow has drifted deeply enough to avalanche. If you find a drift deeper than about 6”, expect it to be easily triggered. Deeper Wind Slab avalanches could also break in older wind drifts that formed over the last week. Either steer clear of new and old wind drifts or watch for signs of instability and dig a snowpit to assess how well they’ve bonded before getting onto steep windloaded slopes.
Persistent Slab avalanches breaking deep in the snowpack become less likely everyday without substantial snowfall and we haven’t seen slides on these weak layers recently, but we don’t quite trust them yet. The last big avalanches broke early last week near Cooke City (here and here) and one in the southern Madison Range. Keep the possibility of triggering one of these big slides in the back of your mind.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE.
KING AND QUEEN OF THE RIDGE
Do you like to hike? Do you like to ski/ride? Then the King & Queen of the Ridge on 2/1 is for you. Hike, ride and raise money for the Friends of the Avalanche Center at Bridger Bowl this year! Join this fun event to promote and support avalanche safety and awareness! Fundraising prizes for the top 5 individuals who raise over $500. No racing is necessary to compete for the fundraising prizes. Info to fundraise is HERE or donate here.
***Race participants for the King and Queen of the Ridge must register separately with Bridger Bowl here***
Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events
Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar
February 20, 4-7 p.m. Beacon BBQ at Uphill Pursuits in Bozeman. Come try out different brands of avalanche transceivers (or practice with your own!) with coaching from Friends of GNFAC instructors and free hotdogs.
Every weekend in Cooke City: Friday at The Antlers at 7 p.m., Free Avalanche Awareness and Current Conditions talk, and Saturday from 10 a.m.-2 p.m. at Round Lake Warming Hut, Free Rescue Practice.
Thank you for sharing observations. Please let us know about avalanches, weather or signs of instability via the form on our website, or you can email us at mtavalanche@gmail.com, or call the office phone at 406-587-6984.