18-19

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Jan 30, 2019

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>On Saturday I placed a fellow skier in a body bag after an avalanche pushed him through trees. The accident provided clarity to something that can seem vexing: on a steep slope, when are trees a sign of safety? The answer is that for skiers (or snow bikers), most of the time they are not. If trees are spaced far enough apart that a skier could link more than a couple turns, then the slope is open enough to avalanche. Instead of tree density, pay attention to slope angle. This accident, plus the avalanche south of Livingston on Saturday (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19877">details</a></strong&gt;) and another on Mt. Ellis on Sunday (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19903">details</a></strong&gt;), all involved avalanches in fairly dense timber. When the snowpack is unstable or tricky to assess, our only safe bet is to avoid avalanche terrain (measured as anything over 30 degrees steep). And the best way to do that is to rely on slope angle instead of seeking safety in trees.</p>

<p>Over the weekend there was a mob of avalanche activity. Some people were caught in slides (the <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19852">Throne</a></strong&gt;), some people triggered them (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19873">Bradley Meadow</a></strong>, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19876">Cedar Mtn</a></strong>) and others just saw the aftermath. Our forecast area is large, so take a few minutes to check out our <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity">Avalanche Activity List</a></strong> to see if there’s been any action in the area you’re headed to today. Recent avalanche activity, collapsing or cracking, indicate dangerous conditions and should override any positive feelings you might have about a slope’s stability.</p>

<p>We have weak snow near the ground and we had a lot of snowfall late last week. With time, stability is improving and it is getting more difficult to trigger avalanches, but there are spots where it is possible. These areas will either be wind-loaded or shallow and unsupportable. Ian was in Taylor Fork on Sunday and was able to trigger a slide in one of these spots from 50’ away (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh3eSrv6fYI">video</a></strong&gt;, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/sunlight-basin-avalanche-2">photo…;). Sinking to your waist in sugary snow is a serious concern because it means the underlying snowpack is weak and potentially unstable. Although triggering slides is getting harder, it’s definitely possible, especially on slopes with recent wind-drifted snow. For today, the danger is rated MODERATE throughout our advisory area.</p>

<p>If you get out and have any avalanche or snowpack observations to share, contact us via our <u><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation">website</a></u&gt;, email (<u><a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a></u&gt;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Avalanche Fatality, Tobacco Root Mountains

The accident report from the Bell Lake Avalanche is now posted HERE. You can also watch a video summary of the accident HERE. Watch your slope angles and do not be fooled by trees indicating safe zones.

Bell Lake Avalanche Fatality

On January 25, 2019 four skiers who were staying at Bell Lake Yurt in the Tobacco Root Mountains were caught in an avalanche. One skier was seriously injured and one was killed. At 1315 hours they were ascending a slope on skis with skins when they heard a loud, roaring “whumph” and looked up to see the treed slope break and avalanche. They were near the top and within one switchback of each other. Two of the skiers were able to hold onto trees, and the other two were carried through thick trees and partially buried.

Natural Avalanche Mt. Blackmore

Mt Blackmore
Northern Gallatin
Code
SS-N-R2-D2-I
Notes

Natural avalanche observed on January 28th.

From email: "Fresh natural on east face of Blackmore in gently wind-loaded terrain."

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
2
D size
2
Bed Surface
I - Interface between new and old snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Jan 29, 2019

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Don’t let today’s blue skies lull you into complacency, weak layers are still reeling from the heavy load that accumulated over two weeks of steady snowfall. Large avalanches remain easy to trigger.</p>

<p>Yesterday, large natural avalanches were seen on Fan Mountain, near Big Sky (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19920">details</a></strong&gt;), Sheep Mountain, near Cooke City (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19924">details</a></strong&gt;), and on Mount Blackmore, in Hyalite (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/natural-avalanche-blackmore">phot…;). The slide on Sheep Mountain broke up to 8’ deep in a thick wind drift. Big Sky ski patrol also triggered a large avalanche yesterday that broke 3-5’ deep on weak layers near the ground (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19922">details</a></strong&gt;). Yesterday’s avalanches are just the latest in the string of natural and human triggered avalanches that have been reported every day for almost two weeks (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity">avalanche activity</a></strong>), including multiple skier triggered avalanches this weekend (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19852">details</a></strong&gt;, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19873">details</a></strong&gt;, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19903">photos and details</a></strong>), and a skier killed in an avalanche in the Tobacco Roots on Friday (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6T7SQNvwsQ&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;

<p>Give steep terrain a wide berth, as you could trigger an avalanche from a distance, either from below, or from connected lower angle terrain. On Sunday, my partner and I triggered an avalanche from 50’ away on flat ridgeline in Taylor Fork (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh3eSrv6fYI&amp;index=2&amp;t=0s&amp;li…;, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/sunlight-basin-avalanche-2">photo…;). There have also been multiple reports of slides on lower angle avalanche terrain, just over 30 degrees steep (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/19857">details</a></strong&gt;).</p>

<p>Patience and restraint are the name of the game today. Without more snow in the short term forecast, avalanche conditions will slowly improve. There will be a time for riding steep slopes, it just isn’t here quite yet.</p>

<p>Today, triggering a large and dangerous avalanche is likely. Avalanche danger is <strong>CONSIDERABLE</strong>.</p>

<p>If you get out and have any avalanche or snowpack observations to share, contact us via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation">website</a&gt;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a&gt;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Avalanche Fatality Tobacco Root Mountains

On Friday four skiers were caught in an avalanche while ascending a steep forested slope in the Tobacco Root Mountains. Two skiers grabbed trees and were able to self-arrest, the other two skiers were swept downhill. One skier was seriously injured, the other died from trauma. Our deepest condolences go to the family and friends of the victim.