GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Mar 19, 2019
<p>Avalanches are unlikely today. The combination of warm days and below freezing temperatures at night has been good for stability. The snow surface on sunny slopes has gone through several freeze-thaw cycles. There are crusts on all but the shadiest slopes and thick crusts have developed on the sunniest slopes. On some slopes, refrozen meltwater has locked the upper snowpack up tight, as I found yesterday near Cooke City (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BahTTtR9lAA&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;). Small wet loose avalanches could run on these crusts as they break down this afternoon. If you start to see rollerballs and pinwheels, move to less steep, shadier slopes. A small wet loose slide can knock you off your feet or push you over a cliff band. While not widespread, yesterday afternoon near Big Sky skiers found some low elevation slopes where the whole thin snowpack (less than 3 ft deep) was unconsolidated slush. If you’re sinking in wet snow more than a few inches, be wary of gullies where a small slide could you pile up deep debris.</p>
<p>With the warm temperatures, cornices have started to break off. Limit your exposure by minimizing your time travelling beneath them.</p>
<p>The snow surface has stayed dry on high elevation shady slopes. A week out from the last snowfall triggering a dry snow avalanche is unlikely but not impossible. Be on the lookout for isolated drifts where you can still trigger a small wind slab (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htNwM_uyA44&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;). A large slab avalanche was triggered by snowmobilers in the Gravelly Range (outside our advisory area) on Saturday (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/snowmobile-triggered-slide-near-v…;). Keep up good travel practices to minimize the consequences in the unlikely event you trigger one of these slides. Carry rescue gear, ride one at a time, and watch your partners from a safe spot.</p>
<p>With only isolated instabilities, the avalanche danger is rated <strong>LOW</strong>.</p>
<p>If you get out and have any avalanche or snowpack observations to share, contact us via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation">website</a>, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>
Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events
GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Mar 18, 2019
<p>Today the snowpack is generally stable and avalanches are unlikely. This morning sunny slopes have a stable, frozen crust on the surface. I expect this crust will soften slowly and wet loose avalanches will be minimal. Over the weekend temperatures reached the mid to upper 30s F, and relatively few small loose snow avalanches were observed (<u><strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/skier-triggered-dry-loose-avalanc…;, <u><strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/wet-loose-slides-near-fairy-lake"…; </strong></u><u><strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/20408">photos</a></strong></u>). Similar weather today will create similar, generally stable conditions.</p>
<p>If you travel into steep terrain, remain cautious and be on the lookout for isolated instabilities. Small wet loose avalanches are possible near steep, sunny rock outcrops. Yesterday Ian saw small loose snow slides near Cooke City (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEGx5NMQS6E&index=1&list=PLXu51…;, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/small-slab-and-wet-loose-cooke">p…;), and on Saturday I saw a few in the northern Bridgers (<u><strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htNwM_uyA44&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;). Move to shadier slopes or lower angle terrain if the snow surface becomes moist, or if you see roller balls or natural point release slides.</p>
<p>On shady slopes the snow has stayed dry. Northerly winds could drift this snow into small fresh slabs. Look out for these wind slabs if you see blowing snow along ridgelines. Small slides can be dangerous if they knock you down or carry you through trees or over cliffs.</p>
<p>On Friday near Big Sky a small wind slab was likely triggered by a cornice fall (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/20418">photo</a></strong>). Cornices are large and can break naturally during warm, sunny days. Minimize or avoid travel on slopes below cornices. On Saturday near Virginia City (outside our advisory area) snowmobilers triggered a large slab avalanche (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/snowmobile-triggered-slide-near-v…;). These isolated events are reminders to remain diligent about snowpack and terrain assessment (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDZIGxGxCgY&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;). Yesterday skiers in Hyalite found multiple unstable tests scores on a weak layer buried one foot deep, and happily changed their objective to more conservative terrain.</p>
<p>Today the snowpack is generally stable and avalanche danger is rated <strong>LOW</strong>. If you travel in steep terrain, carefully assess the snowpack and terrain for possible isolated instabilities.</p>
<p>If you get out and have any avalanche or snowpack observations to share, contact us via our <u><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation">website</a></u>, email (<u><a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a></u>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>
Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events
Small snowmobile-triggered W. side Fisher Mtn.
We saw a small slab avalanche on the west side of Fisher Mountain that was triggered by a snowmobile a few days ago. The slab failed on a weak layer near the ground, in a spot where the snowpack was exceptionally thin. There was a smaller, more recent loose wet slide on the same slope about 50 feet away. Photo: GNFAC
A small wet loose and slab avalanche on a SW facing slope near Daisy Pass. These slides were observed on March 17th, 2019. The wet loose looked at least a day or two old, the small slab a bit older. The slab broke ~18" deep at the ground, near some rocks. This slope had an unusually shallow snowpack.
Forecast link: GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Mar 18, 2019GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Mar 19, 2019
This avalanche ran on Friday (3/15) near Big Sky. It was probably triggered by a cornice fall during warm temperatures late in the day. Photo: E. Howard
Forecast link: GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Mar 18, 2019GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Mar 19, 2019